Brokerage firm Motilal Oswal Financial Services has maintained a ‘Neutral’ rating on Dabur India with a target price of ₹515, implying an upside of about 13 per cent from current levels. The brokerage cited improving domestic demand but highlighted near-term risks from geopolitical disruptions and rising input costs.
According to the brokerage, geopolitical uncertainty is starting to affect Dabur’s international business, particularly due to supply-chain disruptions around key shipping routes such as the Red Sea and the Strait of Hormuz. These disruptions have affected product movement in Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC) markets.
Motilal Oswal has trimmed its earnings per share (EPS) estimates for Dabur by 2–3 per cent and values the stock at 40 times its estimated March 2028 EPS. The brokerage noted that softer consumption trends in overseas markets have also impacted performance, with residents spending more time indoors and tourism activity weakening.
The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region contributes about 8 per cent to Dabur’s consolidated revenue, while Turkey accounts for roughly 3–4 per cent. Due to the slowdown in international markets, the company has moderated its near-term consolidated growth guidance from high single digits to mid-single digits.
Despite global headwinds, the brokerage said Dabur’s India business is showing sequential improvement in demand trends. Domestic operations are expected to report better year-on-year growth in Q4FY26 compared with Q3FY26. Rural demand continues to outpace urban consumption, although the gap is gradually narrowing as urban demand recovers.
Across categories, oral care and hair care segments are performing strongly. Dabur holds around a 16 percent market share in oral care, while hair care is seeing double-digit growth supported by demand for higher-margin perfumed hair oils. Healthcare remains relatively muted but is gradually improving, while home care is witnessing a recovery toward high single-digit growth.
Motilal Oswal also noted that quick commerce now contributes 4–5 percent of Dabur’s India revenue and continues to grow at 30–40 percent.
On profitability, the brokerage expects margins to remain stable in the near term. However, the company may consider price hikes from mid-April if crude-linked input costs remain elevated.
Motilal Oswal Financial Services keeps ‘Neutral’ on Dabur India, trims EPS amid geopolitical risks
